Policy Wonk

Utah's 91% claim on chronic homelessness

Headline result
−91%?
claimed fall, later found inaccurate by a state audit
Observational
Implemented by
State of Utah with local providers
Type
State / regional government
Where
United States
Region
North America
When
2005–2016
Evidence
Observational / administrative data

The challenge

Chronically homeless people were costly to public services and hard to house.

The case

From 2005, Utah adopted Housing First for chronically homeless people, and in 2015 the state reported that chronic homelessness had dropped by 91 percent since 2005. The figure was widely reported as proof the approach worked. A December 2018 state audit concluded the figures were inaccurate: much of the fall came from changes in how chronic homelessness was counted, such as no longer counting people in transitional housing. The state had already stopped using the figure. The state did build housing for many chronically homeless people, but the audit said the true reduction is unknown.

Why the results were mixed

Good programs still need honest measurement. Headline numbers that depend on definitions can mislead and later undermine trust in the approach.

Sources