Policy Wonk

Stockton's guaranteed income pilot (SEED)

Headline result
28% → 40%
recipients in full-time work, Feb 2019 to Feb 2020 (control: 32% → 37%)
RCT
Implemented by
City of Stockton with the Economic Security Project
Type
City / local government
Where
United States
Region
North America
When
2019–2021
Evidence
Randomized controlled trial

The challenge

Many low-income residents faced unstable incomes and couldn't cover basic costs.

The case

The Stockton Economic Empowerment Demonstration, launched in 2019 under Mayor Michael Tubbs and funded by philanthropy, gave 125 randomly selected residents of low-income neighborhoods $500 a month for two years. Researchers compared them with a control group. Recipients were more likely to find full-time work than the control group, and they reported less anxiety and depression and more stable finances. Most of the money was spent on food, utilities and other basics. Full-time employment among recipients rose from 28% in February 2019 to 40% a year later, while the control group rose from 32% to 37%.

Why it worked

It challenged the assumption that cash without conditions discourages work, and it sparked more than a hundred similar US pilots. The sample was small and the pandemic hit mid-study, so the findings need confirming at scale.

Sources