The challenge
After high-profile crimes, voters wanted tougher sentences for repeat offenders.
The case
Passed in 1994, California's Three Strikes law required sentences of 25 years to life for people with two prior serious or violent felonies who were convicted of any new felony, even a minor one. The prison population grew and aged, at great cost. Studies found at most a modest deterrent effect, and some found none, while the cost per crime prevented was very high. Voters scaled the law back in 2012 so the third strike must be serious or violent. Zimring's team found people with one or two strikes made up 13.9 percent of adult felony arrests in three cities before the law and 12.8 percent after.
Why it didn't work
Blanket long sentences are an expensive way to cut crime, because people age out of offending while staying in prison. Laws written in response to single high-profile crimes often overreach.
Sources
- Zimring, F. E., Hawkins, G., & Kamin, S. (2001). Punishment and Democracy: Three Strikes and You're Out in California. Oxford University Press.
- UC Berkeley News (1999). Three Strikes law can't take credit for state's drop in crime, finds UC Berkeley law professor (on Zimring, Kamin & Hawkins, Crime and Punishment in California).
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