Justice & public safety
Crime, drugs, policing and youth justice. Real interventions, each with its sources: what worked, what didn't, and why.
8 worked1 mixed3 didn't work
What worked
- WorkedJustice & public safety
Decriminalizing personal drug possession in Portugal
ChallengeA heroin epidemic was driving HIV infections and filling prisons with people who used drugs.
Drug possession treated as a health issue, not a crime.
907 → 267new HIV cases among drug users, 2000 vs 2008Quasi-experimentalRead case - WorkedJustice & public safety
Operation Ceasefire in Boston
ChallengeYouth gun homicides were surging in Boston, driven by a small number of gang members.
Telling gang members directly: the violence stops, or the whole group faces consequences.
−63%youth homicides after launchQuasi-experimentalRead case - WorkedJustice & public safety
Hot spots policing
ChallengeA large share of crime happens on a small number of street blocks.
Focusing police time on the few street blocks where most crime happens.
62 of 78hot spots policing tests reporting crime and disorder reductionsMeta-analysisRead case - WorkedJustice & public safety
Becoming a Man in Chicago
ChallengeSplit-second decisions in tense moments were driving youth violence in Chicago.
Group sessions teaching teenage boys to slow down and think before reacting.
−45–50%violent-crime arrests during the programRCTRead case - WorkedJustice & public safety
Drug treatment courts
ChallengePeople with addiction were cycling through jail without getting treatment.
Supervised treatment instead of prison for people charged with drug-related offenses.
50% → 38%average recidivism, adult drug court non-participants vs participantsMeta-analysisRead case - WorkedJustice & public safety
Norway's rehabilitation-focused prisons
ChallengeMany people leave prison without skills or work and quickly reoffend.
Prisons designed around education, job training and preparing people for release.
−29 ppprobability of reoffending within 5 years, due to imprisonmentQuasi-experimentalRead case - WorkedJustice & public safety
National Firearms Agreement: Australia
ChallengeA run of mass shootings, ending in 35 deaths at Port Arthur in 1996.
Banned rapid-fire long guns, required licensing and bought back over 650,000 firearms.
0fatal mass shootings in 20 years after reform (13 in 18 years before)Quasi-experimentalRead case - WorkedJustice & public safety
Redesigned summons and text reminders: New York City
ChallengeAbout 40% of people summonsed for low-level offences missed court, triggering arrest warrants.
NYC redesigned its court summons form and texted reminders to people due in court for minor offences.
−21%missed court dates among people sent text remindersRCTRead case
Mixed results
What didn't work
- Didn't workJustice & public safety
Scared Straight: prison visits to deter youth crime
ChallengePolicymakers wanted a cheap way to deter at-risk teenagers from a life of crime.
Taking at-risk teenagers into prisons to scare them away from crime.
1.6–1.7 to 1odds of later offending for participants vs no-program controls (meta-analysis)Meta-analysisRead case - Didn't workJustice & public safety
California's Three Strikes law
ChallengeAfter high-profile crimes, voters wanted tougher sentences for repeat offenders.
Mandatory 25-years-to-life sentences for a third felony conviction.
13.9% → 12.8%share of felony arrests by strike-eligible offenders, before vs after lawQuasi-experimentalRead case - Didn't workJustice & public safety
Stop-and-frisk in New York City
ChallengeNew York police wanted to get guns off the street and prevent crime.
Hundreds of thousands of street stops a year, mostly of young Black and Latino men.
−98%stops from 2011 to 2017, while crime kept fallingObservationalRead case