The challenge
Dropped or forgotten cigarettes are a leading cause of fatal house fires.
The case
New York became the first US state to require reduced ignition propensity, or fire-safe, cigarettes in 2004. These cigarettes use bands of thicker paper that tend to make an unattended cigarette go out. Every state had followed by 2011, and Canada and the EU adopted similar standards. The evidence on results is split. A 2014 study by Yau and Marshall found the laws were linked to a 19% fall in residential fire death rates. But a 2018 study by Bonander and colleagues found no statistically significant effect on overall fire deaths, residential fire deaths or cigarette-caused fires. Its estimates for cigarette-caused fire deaths were significant in some versions but did not hold up once state-specific trends were taken into account.
Why the results were mixed
The rule was cheap and did not hurt cigarette sales, but fire deaths were already falling for other reasons, which makes any extra effect hard to detect. Banded paper lowers the chance of ignition but does not eliminate it.
Sources
- Yau, R. K. & Marshall, S. W. (2014). Association between fire-safe cigarette legislation and residential fire deaths in the United States. Injury Epidemiology.
- Bonander, C., Jakobsson, N. & Nilson, F. (2018). Are fire safe cigarettes actually fire safe? Evidence from changes in US state laws. Injury Prevention.
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