Emergency & disaster
Fire prevention, disaster preparedness and early warning. Real interventions, each with its sources: what worked, what didn't, and why.
7 worked4 mixed3 didn't work
What worked
- WorkedEmergency & disaster
Home fire sprinkler mandate: Scottsdale, Arizona
ChallengeHouse fires kill occupants before firefighters can arrive, and fast-growing suburbs stretch fire cover thin.
Scottsdale required automatic fire sprinklers in all new homes, the first US city of its size to do so.
$2,166average loss per sprinklered fire vs. $45,019 unsprinklered (all buildings, 1998–2001)ObservationalRead case - WorkedEmergency & disaster
Indigenous early dry-season burning: West Arnhem Land, Australia
ChallengeHot late dry-season wildfires were burning huge areas of savanna and releasing large amounts of emissions.
Aboriginal rangers revived early dry-season burning to cut large late-season fires, funded by carbon offsets.
488,000 tCO2-equivalent emissions avoided in first three yearsObservationalRead case - WorkedEmergency & disaster
Targeted smoke alarm installation: Oklahoma City, USA
ChallengeResidential fire injuries were concentrated in one low-income part of the city.
Health officials gave out smoke alarms door to door in the city area with the highest fire injury rates.
−80%fire injury rate in the target area over four yearsQuasi-experimentalRead case - WorkedEmergency & disaster
Wildfire-resistant building code (Chapter 7A): California
ChallengeWind-blown embers ignite homes through roofs, vents and siding, letting wildfires spread house to house.
California required fire-resistant roofs, vents, windows and siding on new homes in high fire-risk areas.
−40%chance a post-2008 home is destroyed vs. a 1990 homeQuasi-experimentalRead case - WorkedEmergency & disaster
Cyclone Preparedness Programme: Bangladesh
ChallengeCyclones striking the low-lying coast killed hundreds of thousands of people in single storms.
A national volunteer network spreads cyclone warnings and moves coastal villagers to shelters.
138,000deaths in the 1991 cyclone; about 3,400 officially in Cyclone Sidr, 2007ObservationalRead case - WorkedEmergency & disaster
Cyclone preparedness after 1999: Odisha, India
ChallengeThe 1999 super cyclone killed about 10,000 people in a state with weak warning and shelter systems.
Odisha built a disaster agency, shelters and drills, then evacuated close to a million people before Phailin.
44deaths in Cyclone Phailin 2013, vs about 10,000 in 1999ObservationalRead case - WorkedEmergency & disaster
Heat Action Plan: Ahmedabad, India
ChallengeExtreme heat killed many people in Ahmedabad, with about 1,344 excess deaths in one 2010 heatwave.
South Asia's first city heat plan, with heat alerts, public outreach and hospital readiness.
~1,190estimated deaths avoided per yearQuasi-experimentalRead case
Mixed results
- MixedEmergency & disaster
Fire-safe cigarette laws: United States
ChallengeDropped or forgotten cigarettes are a leading cause of fatal house fires.
US states required cigarettes to self-extinguish more readily when left unattended.
−19%residential fire death rate in one study; not robust in anotherQuasi-experimentalRead case - MixedEmergency & disaster
Rural fire management overhaul: Portugal
ChallengeFragmented agencies focused on fighting fires, not preventing them, as rural land and fuel built up.
After deadly 2017 fires, Portugal created a coordinating agency and moved spending toward prevention.
2×public wildfire management funding since 2018ObservationalRead case - MixedEmergency & disaster
Firewise USA community recognition program
ChallengeHomes near wildland are lost to wildfire, and individual owners rarely act alone to reduce risk.
Neighbourhoods earn Firewise status by assessing risk, clearing fuel and holding annual preparedness work.
3,000+communities enrolled since 2002ObservationalRead case - MixedEmergency & disaster
Tsunami seawalls and breakwaters: Tohoku, Japan
ChallengeTowns on Japan's northeast coast faced repeated deadly tsunamis.
Japan spent decades building giant sea defences that the 2011 tsunami overtopped or broke.
$1.6bncost of the Kamaishi breakwater, broken in 2011ObservationalRead case
What didn't work
- Didn't workEmergency & disaster
Total fire suppression (the ‘10 a.m. policy’): United States
ChallengeLarge wildfires in the early 1900s destroyed timber and towns and killed people.
The US Forest Service tried to put out every wildfire by 10 a.m. the day after it was reported.
10 a.m.deadline to control every fire, the morning after it was reportedObservationalRead case - Didn't workEmergency & disaster
Free smoke alarm giveaway trial: inner London, UK
ChallengeLow-income households are more likely to have house fires and less likely to have working alarms.
About 20,000 free smoke alarms were given to households in deprived inner London wards.
16%sampled giveaway households with a working alarmRCTRead case - Didn't workEmergency & disaster
Government response to Hurricane Katrina: United States
ChallengeA long-predicted major hurricane strike on a city below sea level, with many residents without cars.
Federal, state and city agencies failed to evacuate, rescue and supply people in New Orleans in 2005.
1,392deaths from Hurricane Katrina (revised NHC count)ObservationalRead case